Comments on: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

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By: ZachStocks » Blog Archive » Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

ZachStocks » Blog Archive » Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) — Thu, 02 Aug 2007 01:01:34 +0000

[...] in June I looked at Chipotle as a proven growth company with a special niche and loyal following. Since that time the stock [...]

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 16:47:40 +0000

Hey, been a while since i checked in. keeping your blog on the fav list. Did you know that CMG “a” & “b” had there first $10 dip about 10 trading days ago? Bring the shares down to the 50 day SMA and the lower Bollinger Band, and the downgrade seems to be a mistake. Since then 3 houses picked up coverage with favorable but sometimes conservative price goals. Citigroup, Lehman, S&P. Also on Fast Money, CNBC 8pm EST, 7 trading days ago, wednesday, the CFO was a “phone” guest and they interviewed about the threat of commodity cost chewing into the quarterly momentum. The CMG CFO said they survived the price upticks in the first quarter and reiterated that many items in the income statement (costs) have lasting favorable trends. After that all 4 panelist gave it a thumbs up. Even commodity guru Eric Bollin, who always adverse to any company that used commodities like oil. Thats 4 buy ratings in a row over past 2 weeks. After all that excitement the bounce in the “a” shares became $8 to $87. with a little profit taking last tuesday/thursday back down to $82.50, and a friday snap back to 85.45 by the end of the day.
Now what??
I understand the fundamentals better then the techniquals. But i believe that for the “a” shares that $80 is a low end plateau and there should be able to uptick from there. But how much in next 30 days? what is your upside price goal both before and after earnings? is 88-92 a fair objective? bonus…. if you hunt on EBay, the 2007 Chipotle Free Entrees Banko Notes, worth about $6.25+, and even $8+ in manhattan/boston are auctioning for $4-ish+. Boris B. fort pierce florida.

By: Zach

Zach — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 17:31:30 +0000

Borris,

I actually indicated for a significant amount of stock on the IPO but got shut out. I was pretty upset as it did well and I usually at least get a little stock in these deals. After that I waited (a long time) for the stock to build its first true base and then bot back involved April 9 when it looked like it was breaking out of its first base. I was a bit early but benefited when at the end of the month the company had a great earnings announcement.

I trade the "A" shares (ticker CMG) as that is where most of the liquidity is, and where the options are available to hedge if necessary.

By: Boris

Boris — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 16:55:40 +0000

Curious what first month you opened long(s) positions of Chipotle’s A shares or B shares? Also, your #2 point, diffrentiate, is totally 100%. Chipotle’s has a secret sauce borders devine pefection. but the clones Qdoba, Baja fresh, La salsa, and maybe eveb Moe’s no way. not even close. Boris

By: Zach

Zach — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 14:35:19 +0000

The higher the stock goes, the more risk, obviously, of a pullback. However, if the company is creating new value for shareholders, one should expect the stock to quickly discount that value (rise) as the knowledge becomes public.

From a technical standpoint, it is usually very dangerous to step in front of such a pattern and try to short a stock hitting new highs. When i am long a name that rises quickly, I often take some profits off the table, but want to leave a good bit on because stocks that appreciate quickly often move much farther than i would have originally thought.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 10 Jun 2007 21:53:57 +0000

i agree with your optomism.
the shares have potential to be atleast $99 within 12 months,
but with the shares up about $30 or nearly 50% since the march lows, what short term upside is left in the face of a serious tip threat? boris b

By: Zach

Zach — Fri, 08 Jun 2007 16:36:30 +0000

I think you're absolutely right about this being a competitive environment. Whenever you have intense competition in a narrow industry, companies have basically 2 choices: 1) compete on price, or 2) differentiate your product.

CMG has chosen #2 and is spending considerable effort being different than every other burritto maker out there. Their higher quality, better customer service, and attractive store environment hopefully will set it apart from Moes, Willys and a handfull of others and allow them to charge a premium price for a premium product.

I could be wrong (it happens frequently) but I think they will compete well.

By: Joel Odom

Joel Odom — Fri, 08 Jun 2007 13:49:29 +0000

What about competition? The market seems to be flooded with big-burrito places. In the 1990s it was Chinese buffet places, now it’s big-burrito places.