Comments on: update 9/24 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Tue, 31 Jan 2012 01:21:02 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1042 borisb Tue, 25 Sep 2007 22:23:10 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1042 the nasdaq pumped up 12% since mid august and i would not be surprised to see a sharp index downdraft anytime. today was Lowes and Target day 1 disintergration, dont expect that to fix itself quickly, but rather todays denial action to soon turn ugly. the nasdaq pumped up 12% since mid august and i would not be surprised to see a sharp index downdraft anytime. today was Lowes and Target day 1 disintergration, dont expect that to fix itself quickly, but rather todays denial action to soon turn ugly.

]]> By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1041 borisb Tue, 25 Sep 2007 22:09:11 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1041 Trader Mark, i just played CROCS investment presentation from this morning and the Prez said that investors should hope they have to spend more for air frieght in coming quaters as that also means the sequentials will remain rich. also, amazingly, the company is seeing sales productivity 10x-20x at the Kiosks and CROCS stores then at distribution retailers. i believe that ultimately CROCS will raise ASPs from $16.75-ish per pair towards the retail prices. they already have 70 stores in Asia and Europe. ie why give away that last $10 per pair to Dillards and the others.... eventually its going to CROCS. if so this years eps of $2 might have true earnings power of $4+ if coming caputed that gross margin that all the retailers are milking. ie CROCS might have some of DELLs model built in. ZACH, why is the valuation of CROCS so bad? i see $2+ in '07 and $3+ in '08. Have you examined the various top line income statement numbers? Trader Mark, i just played CROCS investment presentation from this morning and the Prez said that investors should hope they have to spend more for air frieght in coming quaters as that also means the sequentials will remain rich. also, amazingly, the company is seeing sales productivity 10x-20x at the Kiosks and CROCS stores then at distribution retailers. i believe that ultimately CROCS will raise ASPs from $16.75-ish per pair towards the retail prices. they already have 70 stores in Asia and Europe. ie why give away that last $10 per pair to Dillards and the others…. eventually its going to CROCS. if so this years eps of $2 might have true earnings power of $4+ if coming caputed that gross margin that all the retailers are milking. ie CROCS might have some of DELLs model built in. ZACH, why is the valuation of CROCS so bad? i see $2+ in ‘07 and $3+ in ‘08. Have you examined the various top line income statement numbers?

]]> By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1040 borisb Tue, 25 Sep 2007 22:01:02 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1040 the rate cut does change the dynamic some, but the time to make that invest posturing has passed. remember back in mid-august? that was the time to act. the rate cut does change the dynamic some, but the time to make that invest posturing has passed. remember back in mid-august? that was the time to act.

]]> By: TraderMark http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1036 TraderMark Tue, 25 Sep 2007 21:50:17 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1036 Still loving the Apple and Crocs - Crocs is an international story - only fly in ointment is drop in gross margins to mid 50s from 60 - that might cause some sell off into earnings but until the 'news' hits, I am buying rumor/selling news. Zach I think Apple is going to surprise you. Are you seeing the small cap solar stocks explode? Amazing action (SOLF/CSUN/CSIQ) etc. Makes TSL/STP look like darn value stocks. My theory on this is there are only so many stocks sheltered from the weakening US consumer - so X supply and a lot of demand (money that wants to go to work on the long side) - hence prices getting squeezed up in those sectors. I'm still worried about October as I expect a lot of guidance DOWN during earnings season, but the market shrugged off Lowes, Target, Lennar today. By market I mean indexes - the advance decline is pretty bad each session. A tale of 2 markets. Still loving the Apple and Crocs – Crocs is an international story – only fly in ointment is drop in gross margins to mid 50s from 60 – that might cause some sell off into earnings but until the ‘news’ hits, I am buying rumor/selling news. Zach I think Apple is going to surprise you. Are you seeing the small cap solar stocks explode? Amazing action (SOLF/CSUN/CSIQ) etc. Makes TSL/STP look like darn value stocks.

My theory on this is there are only so many stocks sheltered from the weakening US consumer – so X supply and a lot of demand (money that wants to go to work on the long side) – hence prices getting squeezed up in those sectors.

I’m still worried about October as I expect a lot of guidance DOWN during earnings season, but the market shrugged off Lowes, Target, Lennar today. By market I mean indexes – the advance decline is pretty bad each session. A tale of 2 markets.

]]> By: Zach http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1033 Zach Tue, 25 Sep 2007 20:35:46 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1033 Boris, many of my short ideas were premature and while some of them still have merit, I believe the rate cut changes the dynamic. Temporarily (weeks to months) I expect the market and growth stocks specifically to get legs. The easing by the fed creates better opportunities and a clear environment. However, down the road we will eventually have to deal with the problems that were brought up this summer. It could take only a few weeks, or could be put off for months. I still have some short positions, but have added to my long exposure. I anticipate having a long biased portfolio for a bit longer before returning to a neutral to bearish stance. Not always right, but i'll let you know how i am positioned. All the best, Boris,

many of my short ideas were premature and while some of them still have merit, I believe the rate cut changes the dynamic. Temporarily (weeks to months) I expect the market and growth stocks specifically to get legs. The easing by the fed creates better opportunities and a clear environment.

However, down the road we will eventually have to deal with the problems that were brought up this summer. It could take only a few weeks, or could be put off for months. I still have some short positions, but have added to my long exposure. I anticipate having a long biased portfolio for a bit longer before returning to a neutral to bearish stance.

Not always right, but i’ll let you know how i am positioned.

All the best,

]]> By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1030 borisb Tue, 25 Sep 2007 19:57:59 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1030 i let go of all the CROX today in the 63s and mostly 64s. i let go of all the CROX today in the 63s and mostly 64s.

]]> By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1029 borisb Tue, 25 Sep 2007 19:56:18 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1029 zack, it looks like some of your shorts were premature, but at this point it looks like you are totally letting your guard down. (?) dont. also super beta LULU is exactly the volitility you dont need if market whipsaws down. zack, it looks like some of your shorts were premature,
but at this point it looks like you are totally letting your guard down. (?) dont. also super beta LULU is exactly the volitility you dont need if market whipsaws down.

]]> By: Zach http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-1007 Zach Tue, 25 Sep 2007 12:40:45 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-1007 I am getting a bit concerned. I thought the rate cut would give us a longer lived rally. New lows have not dried up and the advance decline line has not picked up as much as I would have liked to see. They never make it easy. Borris: we purchased a small (tiny) piece of CROX yesterday as it broke out. It is a very risky play (hence the small size) and it is very expensive, but it may just continue to run with investors believing the story still has plenty of room to go. I don't know how to justify it based on an earnings model though. I am getting a bit concerned. I thought the rate cut would give us a longer lived rally. New lows have not dried up and the advance decline line has not picked up as much as I would have liked to see. They never make it easy.

Borris: we purchased a small (tiny) piece of CROX yesterday as it broke out. It is a very risky play (hence the small size) and it is very expensive, but it may just continue to run with investors believing the story still has plenty of room to go. I don’t know how to justify it based on an earnings model though.

]]> By: borisb http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-977 borisb Mon, 24 Sep 2007 23:58:55 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-977 Any thoughts on CROCS PE & PEG metrics? Any thoughts on CROCS PE & PEG metrics?

]]> By: TraderMark http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/comment-page-1/#comment-973 TraderMark Mon, 24 Sep 2007 22:59:37 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2007/09/update-924/#comment-973 Zach, Financials have been pretty week the past 3 days, as have most of retail, restaurants - of all things homebuilders had a bid today (washed out? who knows) But without the financials at least participating in some fashion it's hard to see a sustained rally here. Its a bifurcated (sp?) market right now. Have you seen some of the Chinese small mid cap stocks going up 40-60% in 3-4 days - crazy speculation. Thanks Ben! All the i-banks save GS are below 50 day moving average again. Zach, Financials have been pretty week the past 3 days, as have most of retail, restaurants – of all things homebuilders had a bid today (washed out? who knows)

But without the financials at least participating in some fashion it’s hard to see a sustained rally here. Its a bifurcated (sp?) market right now. Have you seen some of the Chinese small mid cap stocks going up 40-60% in 3-4 days – crazy speculation. Thanks Ben!

All the i-banks save GS are below 50 day moving average again.

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