Categorized | Long Ideas

update 10/30

Perfect World is up over 9% and the catalyst appears to be an IBD article about a competitor Giant Industries pricing an IPO.  The stock has bounced off the 50 day and appears to be finding institutional buyers with strong volume.

While Under Armour was down substantially pre-market, the stock has rallied all day and it appears at this time that investors are happy with revised estimates and a strong quarter.

After attempting to bounce off the lows, Coach appears to have given up the fight and is down over 2% this afternoon.  Watch consumer stocks carefully to get a pulse on our economic health.

MF Global had run higher into its earnings release.  The stock gapped down this morning after the news was released but the conference call appears to have instilled some confidence as the stock has paired its losses and appears stable.

Bolt Technology is giving up some gains and looks range-bound on a daily chart.  The stock is fairly volatile and daily swings often distract from the long-term fundamental picture.  Control risk, but don’t get washed out each time it consolidates gains.

For whatever its worth, I am lightening up on exposure ahead of the Fed meeting.  I’m not closing everything down, but it has been a good month and I don’t want to see a large amount of gains evaporate the last day of the quarter.

Trade well and watch closely,

ZDS

update 10/30

6 Comments For This Post

  1. Seth Ames Says:

    What about DRYS?
    Would you suggests averaging into a position for BTJ?

  2. borisb Says:

    Crocs came down $18 to $20 from the $75s high point for prices as low as $55s. i sold block for $64.00-ish about 1 month ago. should i start buying back with $57s prices?

  3. borisb Says:

    played CROCS call, management quoted saying they were unable to ship $30 to $35 million in goods for the third quarter to retailers in Europe and Japan due to a logisical issues. the company says demand remains firm. Europe and Japan were up sharply year over year, with Japan up more then 50% seqnetially. the shares are off $20+ and i want to dip buy.

  4. bboris Says:

    i bought back most of my old CROX block for about $50-ish . with an early exit $64+ the buyback dividend is still nearly $14 a share. lowest buy price $48.98, the average is about $50.05. suggestions?

  5. Zach Says:

    Boris – You are more talented than I at buying dips. I personally would wait to see some consolidation and strength before jumping into this name.

    Seth – there have been some spot price decreases in day rates for shippers and this is pulling some of the shipping companies down. It should set up a good opportunity to work into some names like DRYS, but I am waiting for the patterns to pull up.

    for BTJ, I still have a position and think this is an attractive stpot to own, but the overall market is making me feel a little more cautious. I am trading smaller positions for now as the risk is greater.

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