Comments on: Huron Consulting Group (HURN) – A Challenging Situation http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:25:18 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4870 bboris Sat, 28 Jun 2008 15:21:27 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4870 well google didnt have any kind of low point near 540, even though it has slumped downward for 39 trading days from $600. i had a stop loss, thank god, the sellers no mercy. well google didnt have any kind of low point near 540, even though it has slumped downward for 39 trading days from $600. i had a stop loss, thank god, the sellers no mercy.

]]> By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4856 bboris Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:49:11 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4856 its clear you have a good solid conservative macro view. i did a google long near 540 with some fear tuesday. i will use small gains from a google short to pad the stop loss damage if it keeps sinking. your blessing on google long would have been better. its clear you have a good solid conservative macro view. i did a google long near 540 with some fear tuesday. i will use small gains from a google short to pad the stop loss damage if it keeps sinking. your blessing on google long would have been better.

]]> By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4851 Zachary Scheidt Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:17:08 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4851 Boris, you certainly could be right. I'll give you my honest opinions always, but I'm not immune to getting it wrong from time to time. My view is that investors as a broad group will become overly negative as well. This may mean that stocks are pushed below their theoretical value (which is what typically happens in bear markets). Unfortunately, just because the company as a whole has a solid business model may not insulate it from broader market based selling. I'm not completely convinced one way or another on the "theoretical value" of Google, but I am fairly convinced that the general market sentiment will get worse before it recovers which will likely mean lower prices for many well thought of stocks. Just my opinion - we all have one :-) Zach Boris, you certainly could be right. I’ll give you my honest opinions always, but I’m not immune to getting it wrong from time to time. My view is that investors as a broad group will become overly negative as well. This may mean that stocks are pushed below their theoretical value (which is what typically happens in bear markets). Unfortunately, just because the company as a whole has a solid business model may not insulate it from broader market based selling.

I’m not completely convinced one way or another on the “theoretical value” of Google, but I am fairly convinced that the general market sentiment will get worse before it recovers which will likely mean lower prices for many well thought of stocks.

Just my opinion – we all have one :-)
Zach

]]> By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4850 bboris Sun, 22 Jun 2008 17:48:31 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4850 Google- regarding premium contraction, Google has been stuck around $500-ish since late 2005, believe it or not thats 10 quarters of reporting gains on the income statement and still the stock hasnt advanced. If thats the case, looks like you are calling an additional round of declining valuation. Google has based near $500 for going on 2+ years, and you believe it gets worse before it gets better. Unless you see something messy thats not obvious, arent you being a little bit overly negative? Google- regarding premium contraction, Google has been stuck around $500-ish since late 2005, believe it or not thats 10 quarters of reporting gains on the income statement and still the stock hasnt advanced. If thats the case, looks like you are calling an additional round of declining valuation. Google has based near $500 for going on 2+ years, and you believe it gets worse before it gets better. Unless you see something messy thats not obvious, arent you being a little bit overly negative?

]]> By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4840 bboris Sat, 21 Jun 2008 20:18:36 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4840 Google with $40 cash backed out = $500-ish and eps of $20 to $24 in '08 depending on how its measured and last quarter ended 3/31/08 the top line grew 47%. i am surprised you are that negative. it must be that you take no stock in the +47% which = a P/E of 20x - 25x and a PEG of .50 to .40 looks like you dont believe the growth rate is anywhere near that robust or a deceleration is right around the corner. fair assesment? AMSC- i am not surprised by your conclusion. but remember on 3/31/2008 the backlog was $199 million +17% from 12/31/07 and today 6/21/2008 the backlog is $679 million +240% from 3/31/08. with this i believe there is a little more "proven growth" then first glance. Google with $40 cash backed out = $500-ish and eps of $20 to $24 in ‘08 depending on how its measured and last quarter ended 3/31/08 the top line grew 47%. i am surprised you are that negative.
it must be that you take no stock in the +47% which = a P/E of 20x – 25x and a PEG of .50 to .40 looks like you dont believe the growth rate is anywhere near that robust or a deceleration is right around the corner. fair assesment?

AMSC- i am not surprised by your conclusion. but remember
on 3/31/2008 the backlog was $199 million +17% from 12/31/07 and today 6/21/2008 the backlog is $679 million +240% from 3/31/08. with this i believe there is a little more “proven growth” then first glance.

]]> By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4838 Zachary Scheidt Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:28:35 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4838 Hey Boris, I think Google could be susceptible to a broad market swing lower not because the company is in trouble, but just because the premiums investors are willing to pay for growth will contract during economically weak times. I must say that I am tempted to take a small short position based on the way it is trading, and the anemic broader market action. AMSC looks a bit vulnerable too at first blush. It doesn't fit into my universe of stocks public less than 5 years so I have not done extensive research, but it appears investors are betting the farm on growth that has yet to be proven. Best case scenario would be that the company ramps up earnings to catch up with the current stock price. Worst case is much more dangerous with profitability being pushed farther back on the calendar and frustrated shareholders bailing out. But that is just a cursory overview without an in depth analysis. Thanks for the comments, ZDS Hey Boris,

I think Google could be susceptible to a broad market swing lower not because the company is in trouble, but just because the premiums investors are willing to pay for growth will contract during economically weak times. I must say that I am tempted to take a small short position based on the way it is trading, and the anemic broader market action.

AMSC looks a bit vulnerable too at first blush. It doesn’t fit into my universe of stocks public less than 5 years so I have not done extensive research, but it appears investors are betting the farm on growth that has yet to be proven. Best case scenario would be that the company ramps up earnings to catch up with the current stock price. Worst case is much more dangerous with profitability being pushed farther back on the calendar and frustrated shareholders bailing out. But that is just a cursory overview without an in depth analysis.

Thanks for the comments,
ZDS

]]> By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4837 bboris Sat, 21 Jun 2008 16:09:53 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4837 Google- a bullish perception. The shares are in the $540s, but less the $40+ cash the enterprise cost is $500-ish. the eps estimates are $20 to $21 this year, while managers at Gabelli Media Trust say eps is understated by about $1 per quarter. with these adjustments the Google might be priced around $500-ish with eps of $24 to $25 this year. several forward growth catalyst include.. desplay ads rise w/ 2008's doubleclick, wireless ads rise w/ 2008's andriod, youtube monitizes during 2009, international still tremendous, cloud computing ramp w/ Salesforce.com, more applications progress, Yahoo! goes from competitor to contributor, MSFT shrinking. Google- a bullish perception. The shares are in the $540s, but less the $40+ cash the enterprise cost is $500-ish. the eps estimates are $20 to $21 this year, while managers at Gabelli Media Trust say eps is understated by about $1 per quarter. with these adjustments the Google might be priced around $500-ish with eps of $24 to $25 this year. several forward growth catalyst include.. desplay ads rise w/ 2008’s doubleclick, wireless ads rise w/ 2008’s andriod, youtube monitizes during 2009, international still tremendous, cloud computing ramp w/ Salesforce.com, more applications progress, Yahoo! goes from competitor to contributor, MSFT shrinking.

]]> By: bboris http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-4836 bboris Sat, 21 Jun 2008 14:16:17 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/06/huron-consulting-group-hurn-a-challenging-situation/#comment-4836 would you consider doing a review on american superconductor-amsc? they had an significant earnings beat in the first quarter 2008 reported early May 2008, having a fantastic 245% backlog increase in the current second quarter 2008, the analysts revised everything upward, and the story seems fresh and relevant. would you consider doing a review on american superconductor-amsc? they had an significant earnings beat in the first quarter 2008 reported early May 2008, having a fantastic 245% backlog increase in the current second quarter 2008, the analysts revised everything upward, and the story seems fresh and relevant.

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