Comments on: Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM) – All About the Guidance http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Tue, 02 Mar 2010 20:30:15 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: ZachStocks » Blog Archive » Shorting Software - Salesforce Soon to Swoon http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/comment-page-1/#comment-5537 ZachStocks » Blog Archive » Shorting Software - Salesforce Soon to Swoon Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:02:33 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/#comment-5537 [...] ZachStocks disclosed concerns with this company back in August prior to the second quarter release.  Since that report, the stock has dropped as much as 65% before rebounding sharply over the past month.  But despite this lower stock price, risks still seem to outweigh the potential benefit of owning this growing company.  In fact, investors will likely use the recent bounce to lighten up on their exposure and I expect the stock to fall again.  Momentum players will not likely be part of the shareholder base as CRM is somewhat tarnished. [...] [...] ZachStocks disclosed concerns with this company back in August prior to the second quarter release.  Since that report, the stock has dropped as much as 65% before rebounding sharply over the past month.  But despite this lower stock price, risks still seem to outweigh the potential benefit of owning this growing company.  In fact, investors will likely use the recent bounce to lighten up on their exposure and I expect the stock to fall again.  Momentum players will not likely be part of the shareholder base as CRM is somewhat tarnished. [...]

]]> By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/comment-page-1/#comment-5068 Zachary Scheidt Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:28:57 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/#comment-5068 Ian, you are right - the fundamental metrics that determine long-term growth will be the driving forces over the next several quarters. Mark, Thanks!! Yes I've had 2 false starts of my own but stopped out quickly for minimal losses. I do think that once this stock starts to roll we will see a prolonged period of weakness. In the past high valuation hasn't mattered. Now that it does, the stock should take more than one day to correct back to a reasonable level. Thanks for the comments guys! Zach Ian, you are right – the fundamental metrics that determine long-term growth will be the driving forces over the next several quarters.

Mark, Thanks!! Yes I’ve had 2 false starts of my own but stopped out quickly for minimal losses. I do think that once this stock starts to roll we will see a prolonged period of weakness. In the past high valuation hasn’t mattered. Now that it does, the stock should take more than one day to correct back to a reasonable level.

Thanks for the comments guys!
Zach

]]> By: Mark http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/comment-page-1/#comment-5066 Mark Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:29:41 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/#comment-5066 Congrats on the short. I've tried to short this one multiple times in the past half decade and lost each time. 185 earnings is "cheap" versus what is has traded in the past. I guess its all about timing but when stocks disassociate from earnings it can be a long time so you have to wait for the break down or return to saneness I guess. Congrats on the short. I’ve tried to short this one multiple times in the past half decade and lost each time. 185 earnings is “cheap” versus what is has traded in the past. I guess its all about timing but when stocks disassociate from earnings it can be a long time so you have to wait for the break down or return to saneness I guess.

]]> By: Ian Gilyeat http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/comment-page-1/#comment-5058 Ian Gilyeat Tue, 19 Aug 2008 22:05:29 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/2008/08/salesforcecom-inc-crm-all-about-the-guidance/#comment-5058 185 times is absurd. The two statistics offered: deferred revenue and number of active customer counts tell part of the story for operational strength. A third element is cash on the balance sheet to see how they are using the cash that customers pay them upfront for service; subscription conversion and renewals rates and average customer value are the others that are critical to see in order to understand operational strength and future revenues. 185 times is absurd. The two statistics offered: deferred revenue and number of active customer counts tell part of the story for operational strength. A third element is cash on the balance sheet to see how they are using the cash that customers pay them upfront for service; subscription conversion and renewals rates and average customer value are the others that are critical to see in order to understand operational strength and future revenues.

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