Comments on: Blue Nile – Pricey and Dangerous http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Fri, 19 Mar 2010 08:08:49 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/comment-page-1/#comment-6527 Zachary Scheidt Tue, 07 Apr 2009 23:30:53 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=780#comment-6527 HAHA!Grumpy rules! Doug I agree with you and while "rich" people don't make up the typical Blue Nile buyer, your point about conservative spending is right on line. I do think that wise wealthy consumers can actually be the FIRST to start spending coming out of a recession because they know they are getting the most for their dollar. Imagine Fred who drives a sturdy Chrysler for 15 years at a time. Now might be the perfect time to buy a new car at manufacturers cost and drive it until 2024! Durable goods make sense and hard assets that hold their value also (think precious metals). It will be interesting to see how things shake out but at this point I'm still very cautious about retailers - especially ones that carry a high multiple like Blue Nile! Thanks to all for the comments! Zach HAHA!Grumpy rules!

Doug I agree with you and while “rich” people don’t make up the typical Blue Nile buyer, your point about conservative spending is right on line.

I do think that wise wealthy consumers can actually be the FIRST to start spending coming out of a recession because they know they are getting the most for their dollar. Imagine Fred who drives a sturdy Chrysler for 15 years at a time. Now might be the perfect time to buy a new car at manufacturers cost and drive it until 2024!

Durable goods make sense and hard assets that hold their value also (think precious metals). It will be interesting to see how things shake out but at this point I’m still very cautious about retailers – especially ones that carry a high multiple like Blue Nile!

Thanks to all for the comments!
Zach

]]> By: Doug Coulter http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/comment-page-1/#comment-6525 Doug Coulter Tue, 07 Apr 2009 21:31:01 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=780#comment-6525 I sure got burned on this one buying way back when it was in the 90's or so. The fantastic "design what you want" web page impressed me. I won't play in this one again, any time soon. I suspect it's small enough for the big guys to play manipulation games with the price, for one thing. Too hard to predict. Someone mentioned rich people as customers. I dunno. All the rich people I know didn't get that way by accident, and cut spending early in down times, before the less well off do -- how do you think they stay rich? I've not known a bunch of joe averages who buy multi thousand dollar jewelery -- even one shot deals (hopefully) like engagement rings, anyway. If you start out by buying affection, a very dangerous precedent is getting set. Now, you kids get off my lawn! I sure got burned on this one buying way back when it was in the 90’s or so. The fantastic “design what you want” web page impressed me. I won’t play in this one again, any time soon. I suspect it’s small enough for the big guys to play manipulation games with the price, for one thing. Too hard to predict.

Someone mentioned rich people as customers. I dunno. All the rich people I know didn’t get that way by accident, and cut spending early in down times, before the less well off do — how do you think they stay rich? I’ve not known a bunch of joe averages who buy multi thousand dollar jewelery — even one shot deals (hopefully) like engagement rings, anyway. If you start out by buying affection, a very dangerous precedent is getting set.

Now, you kids get off my lawn!

]]> By: Intelligent Speculator | IS recommended readings! http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/comment-page-1/#comment-6194 Intelligent Speculator | IS recommended readings! Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:08:55 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=780#comment-6194 [...] Zach agrees that Blue Nile(NILE) is overvalued, check out Blue Nile - Pricey and dangerous [...] [...] Zach agrees that Blue Nile(NILE) is overvalued, check out Blue Nile – Pricey and dangerous [...]

]]> By: Intelligent Speculator | Tough day and week!! http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/comment-page-1/#comment-6170 Intelligent Speculator | Tough day and week!! Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:04:06 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=780#comment-6170 [...] trade has been going through some tough times as Blue Nile surges forward. I recommend checking out Zach’s post about Nile’s recent rise. I think and hope he will turn out [...] [...] trade has been going through some tough times as Blue Nile surges forward. I recommend checking out Zach’s post about Nile’s recent rise. I think and hope he will turn out [...]

]]> By: IS http://zachstocks.com/2009/03/nile/comment-page-1/#comment-6165 IS Wed, 18 Mar 2009 21:29:12 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=780#comment-6165 Great point, especially about the very high P/E on 2010 earnings which I agree look optimistic but even if they were possible, I would still consider Nile expensive with .82$ EPS... Great point, especially about the very high P/E on 2010 earnings which I agree look optimistic but even if they were possible, I would still consider Nile expensive with .82$ EPS…

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