Comments on: GDP Report Offers Positive Headline, Negative Details http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/gdp-report/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:25:18 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Stock Picks http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/gdp-report/comment-page-1/#comment-7646 Stock Picks Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:37:43 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=1953#comment-7646 I agree, I definitely do not see this being a shallow bottom. I do see us at the trough though, but I think we're going to slosh around up and down a bit before starting the upward climb in the first half of next year. Either way it's all predictions, but it's good to see things stop falling off the cliff. We obviously have to put the brakes on unemployment which by today's numbers looks to be happening. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. I agree, I definitely do not see this being a shallow bottom. I do see us at the trough though, but I think we’re going to slosh around up and down a bit before starting the upward climb in the first half of next year. Either way it’s all predictions, but it’s good to see things stop falling off the cliff. We obviously have to put the brakes on unemployment which by today’s numbers looks to be happening. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

]]> By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/gdp-report/comment-page-1/#comment-7625 Zachary Scheidt Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:35:09 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=1953#comment-7625 Good points Ted - There's definitely a point where the downturn has to decelerate before we can actually have economic growth. But like you said, the growth is unlikely to be stellar until we work through some very heavy issues. Thanks for the comment! Good points Ted – There’s definitely a point where the downturn has to decelerate before we can actually have economic growth. But like you said, the growth is unlikely to be stellar until we work through some very heavy issues.

Thanks for the comment!

]]> By: Ted Hurlbut http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/gdp-report/comment-page-1/#comment-7623 Ted Hurlbut Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:10:38 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=1953#comment-7623 I vote for your Scenario #2, with reservations. We have to stop going down so sharply before we can turn back up, so Q2 was significant. But I doubt we're going to get a V-shaped recovery as the most strident bulls are claiming. Yes, there's enormous stimulus coming into play, most all of it coming from monetary policy, but the consumer is still on the sidelines, and unlike previous recoveries, may very well lag the recovery, and parallel any improvements in employment. Consumer spending patterns have changed, and retail unit sales, price points and margins remain under great pressure. The market is pricing in a rebound, but unlike in the spring when ^rlx was right at the front of the market move, it's now lagging behind somewhat. It's likely going to be a long, tough slog. I vote for your Scenario #2, with reservations. We have to stop going down so sharply before we can turn back up, so Q2 was significant. But I doubt we’re going to get a V-shaped recovery as the most strident bulls are claiming. Yes, there’s enormous stimulus coming into play, most all of it coming from monetary policy, but the consumer is still on the sidelines, and unlike previous recoveries, may very well lag the recovery, and parallel any improvements in employment. Consumer spending patterns have changed, and retail unit sales, price points and margins remain under great pressure. The market is pricing in a rebound, but unlike in the spring when ^rlx was right at the front of the market move, it’s now lagging behind somewhat. It’s likely going to be a long, tough slog.

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