Categorized | Featured, Markets

Oil Inventory Report Fuels Market Rally

oilBullish investors were bailed out today by an unexpected decline in oil inventories.  Stocks had spent the opening hour trading lower after a lackluster Tuesday rebound from sharp equity losses.  But the news that inventories fell by 8 million barrels sparked hopes that demand was picking up and would be a solid indicator of economic strength.

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Not to throw cold water on the fire, but the decline actually had fairly little to do with actual pent up demand for energy.   In fact, oil demand is still down from last year and inventories appear to be lower as a function of refiners using crude which was stored instead of buying new production.  So it will be interesting to see whether crude oil prices which is currently trading near $72.20 will be able to maintain its strength.

The strength in oil coupled with a rise in gold today may actually point more towards inflation than towards economic recovery.  In late trading, the CRB index which is comprised of a broad assortment of commodities was up more than 1.5%.  This is quite a strong showing after significant weakness during the majority of the month.

Check out Phil's Stock World!As energy prices begin to rise, the natural outcry from many consumers may be to cry “foul.”  After all, there has been extreme public opinion against oil companies, the Wall Street firms who profit from trading energy, and in many cases the public forgets that the majority of IRA’s and 401(k) plans have exposure to these companies and these profits in their own retirement accounts.  Instead of debating on whether Congress should control prices (it’s my heartfelt belief that the free market does a much better job of setting price points), let’s look at some opportunities for investors to capture gains in energy (and alternative energy) names.


  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – This natural gas producer has one of the most disciplined and yet still opportunistic management teams in the business.  The stock is trading at a single digit multiple which could see expansion quite quickly if drilling programs are increased.  Any upward movement in natural gas pricing should push management one step closer to pulling the trigger on new projects as the economics suddenly become advantageous.  The company has made some strategic moves in regards to their debt which should give more flexibility and financial stability.
  • SunPower Corporation (SPWRA) – After gaping higher on a strong earnings report, the stock has settled back into a trading range.  The company has been able to tweak its business mix to include more sales of its high margin modules.  This means profitability levels are rising and there is some indication that a glut of oversupply in solar products is beginning to abate.
  • ReneSola Ltd. (SOL) – It’s been a couple of months since we have touched on this name, but the company has made good progress on reducing its debt load and should return to profitability in the coming year.  If analysts are correct and the company earns $0.66 per share in 2010, then the stock is currently at a single digit multiple while growth is right around the corner.  Granted, this is a more aggressive trade, but the potential for a double or triple in the next several months is in play.
Other Articles of Interest
ISM Data Casts Doubt on Recovery
Chesapeake Cuts Deal with PXP
WSJ: Energy Sector Leads Rebound
Minyanville: Why China is the Next Big Oil Play

So as we begin to see a trend emerge in energy markets and to a broader degree, commodity markets, wise investors will likely allocate an appropriate portion of capital into situations which will benefit from higher hard asset prices.

CRB Commodities Index

FD: Author does not have a position in stocks mentioned

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Oil Inventory Report Fuels Market Rally

6 Comments For This Post

  1. David @ Dinks Finance Says:

    I like Chesapeake Energy. I’ve been tracking this stock for about a year now, and I believe it is under valued, especially with the potential of new projects and ventures in the near future. Definitely agree with your analysis.

    -DC

  2. Zachary Scheidt Says:

    Thanks DC – Chesapeake had some serious capital issues (and they’re not out of the woods yet)… But the deal struck with PXP gives them a lot more flexibility and I believe the opportunity is quite good from a risk / reward standpoint.

  3. Stock Picks Says:

    Yeah I agree about the free market, the only thing is that oil is directly coupled with our ability to rebound economically. It’s obvious that speculator money is rising the price well beyond where it should be based on fundamentals. My only thoughts are whether doing something about it will hurt or hinder the markets overall.

  4. Zachary Scheidt Says:

    Is it really obvious that speculator price is above fundamental justification? If so, you should begin working your way into a short position because eventually the fundamentals will determine the price. I’m not sure I completely agree that it is obvious, and I certainly wouldn’t try to cut down on speculation unless there is clear evidence of manipulation. Speculators actually increase liquidity which makes for a better environment for producers AND consumers of commodities.

  5. Stock Picks Says:

    Yeah the liquidity argument does not hold with me. The markets had plenty of liquidity five plus years ago before they jumped 10 fold and beyond when commodities became vogue. Let’s look at it objectively. We are setting on record stocks of oil and we’re trading at $70 plus a barrel. Goldman Sachs makes most of their money lately from commodities and so do a lot of other private sources and that to me is a little scary. I’m all for free markets; don’t get me wrong, but let them work inside something besides commodities. Letting a few people profit does the market little good, when the small guys can’t invest anymore because inflation eats into their disposable income.

  6. Stock Picks Says:

    I do of course respect your opinion on it though. We all know there are plenty of opinions on such things to go around LOL.

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