Bullish investors were bailed out today by an unexpected decline in oil inventories. Stocks had spent the opening hour trading lower after a lackluster Tuesday rebound from sharp equity losses. But the news that inventories fell by 8 million barrels sparked hopes that demand was picking up and would be a solid indicator of economic strength.
Not to throw cold water on the fire, but the decline actually had fairly little to do with actual pent up demand for energy. In fact, oil demand is still down from last year and inventories appear to be lower as a function of refiners using crude which was stored instead of buying new production. So it will be interesting to see whether crude oil prices which is currently trading near $72.20 will be able to maintain its strength.
The strength in oil coupled with a rise in gold today may actually point more towards inflation than towards economic recovery. In late trading, the CRB index which is comprised of a broad assortment of commodities was up more than 1.5%. This is quite a strong showing after significant weakness during the majority of the month.
As energy prices begin to rise, the natural outcry from many consumers may be to cry “foul.” After all, there has been extreme public opinion against oil companies, the Wall Street firms who profit from trading energy, and in many cases the public forgets that the majority of IRA’s and 401(k) plans have exposure to these companies and these profits in their own retirement accounts. Instead of debating on whether Congress should control prices (it’s my heartfelt belief that the free market does a much better job of setting price points), let’s look at some opportunities for investors to capture gains in energy (and alternative energy) names.
So as we begin to see a trend emerge in energy markets and to a broader degree, commodity markets, wise investors will likely allocate an appropriate portion of capital into situations which will benefit from higher hard asset prices.

FD: Author does not have a position in stocks mentioned
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August 20th, 2009 at 2:34 am
I like Chesapeake Energy. I’ve been tracking this stock for about a year now, and I believe it is under valued, especially with the potential of new projects and ventures in the near future. Definitely agree with your analysis.
-DC
August 20th, 2009 at 8:01 am
Thanks DC – Chesapeake had some serious capital issues (and they’re not out of the woods yet)… But the deal struck with PXP gives them a lot more flexibility and I believe the opportunity is quite good from a risk / reward standpoint.
August 22nd, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Yeah I agree about the free market, the only thing is that oil is directly coupled with our ability to rebound economically. It’s obvious that speculator money is rising the price well beyond where it should be based on fundamentals. My only thoughts are whether doing something about it will hurt or hinder the markets overall.
August 22nd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Is it really obvious that speculator price is above fundamental justification? If so, you should begin working your way into a short position because eventually the fundamentals will determine the price. I’m not sure I completely agree that it is obvious, and I certainly wouldn’t try to cut down on speculation unless there is clear evidence of manipulation. Speculators actually increase liquidity which makes for a better environment for producers AND consumers of commodities.
August 26th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Yeah the liquidity argument does not hold with me. The markets had plenty of liquidity five plus years ago before they jumped 10 fold and beyond when commodities became vogue. Let’s look at it objectively. We are setting on record stocks of oil and we’re trading at $70 plus a barrel. Goldman Sachs makes most of their money lately from commodities and so do a lot of other private sources and that to me is a little scary. I’m all for free markets; don’t get me wrong, but let them work inside something besides commodities. Letting a few people profit does the market little good, when the small guys can’t invest anymore because inflation eats into their disposable income.
August 26th, 2009 at 10:23 am
I do of course respect your opinion on it though. We all know there are plenty of opinions on such things to go around LOL.