Comments on: Consumer Stocks to Struggle, Debt to Blame http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Tue, 31 Jan 2012 01:21:02 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: star wars tor credits http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/comment-page-1/#comment-14500 star wars tor credits Wed, 02 Mar 2011 15:30:57 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2068#comment-14500 Resources such as the one you mentioned here will be incredibly helpful to myself! I'll publish a hyperlink to this page on my private blog. I'm certain my site guests will find that fairly valuable. Resources such as the one you mentioned here will be incredibly helpful to myself! I’ll publish a hyperlink to this page on my private blog. I’m certain my site guests will find that fairly valuable.

]]> By: Ted Hurlbut http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/comment-page-1/#comment-7707 Ted Hurlbut Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:43:15 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2068#comment-7707 Zach, I think you're right about equity prices being on the edge. Earnings can only be sustained for so long on cost cutting. If demand does not pick up, many of these stocks will come under pretty intense downward pressure. Zach, I think you’re right about equity prices being on the edge. Earnings can only be sustained for so long on cost cutting. If demand does not pick up, many of these stocks will come under pretty intense downward pressure.

]]> By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/comment-page-1/#comment-7703 Zachary Scheidt Tue, 18 Aug 2009 11:55:49 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2068#comment-7703 Ted, I think you're right... We all know the typical aversion to spending held by the majority of people who lived through the great depression. It completely changed the fiscal landscape of an entire generation. The interesting thing is that while it looks obvious that the retail bubble has burst as far as SPENDING is concerned, the EQUITY PRICES have yet to burst. But maybe we're on the edge of seeing that happen. Ken, good point. There are certain areas within retail that could actually hold up well. We had an article on Carters (which makes baby clothes) - http://zachstocks.com/2009/05/cri/ - and I think there is potential for a few specialty stores like this to hold up well. But as a general rule, there are many retail chains which will likely have a very hard time this holiday season. Thanks for the comments guys! Zach Ted, I think you’re right… We all know the typical aversion to spending held by the majority of people who lived through the great depression. It completely changed the fiscal landscape of an entire generation. The interesting thing is that while it looks obvious that the retail bubble has burst as far as SPENDING is concerned, the EQUITY PRICES have yet to burst. But maybe we’re on the edge of seeing that happen.

Ken, good point. There are certain areas within retail that could actually hold up well. We had an article on Carters (which makes baby clothes) – http://zachstocks.com/2009/05/cri/ – and I think there is potential for a few specialty stores like this to hold up well. But as a general rule, there are many retail chains which will likely have a very hard time this holiday season.

Thanks for the comments guys!
Zach

]]> By: Ken http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/comment-page-1/#comment-7701 Ken Tue, 18 Aug 2009 04:30:29 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2068#comment-7701 I've heard it said where I work, a wholesale club, that the holiday season sales are pinned to the hope that parents will splurge on toys for their children. This, I've heard before during other recessions and toy sales were strong. We shall see if toys drive sales this holiday season. If not, I'm afraid the consumer's well will be dry for another year. I’ve heard it said where I work, a wholesale club, that the holiday season sales are pinned to the hope that parents will splurge on toys for their children. This, I’ve heard before during other recessions and toy sales were strong. We shall see if toys drive sales this holiday season. If not, I’m afraid the consumer’s well will be dry for another year.

]]> By: Ted Hurlbut http://zachstocks.com/2009/08/retail-consumer-debt/comment-page-1/#comment-7700 Ted Hurlbut Tue, 18 Aug 2009 02:24:20 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2068#comment-7700 From this vantage point, it's hard to see much energy in the retail sector. Consumer's remain in their bunker, coming out only occassionally to cherry-pick the latest half-off sale. The consumer isn't going to lead us out of this recession, they are going to lag. The recovery will have to be led from elsewhere. Of greater concern is that this trauma appears to be leading to a fundamental restructuring of consumer's priorities, spending patterns and shopping behavior. Retail right now is starting to feel like the hidden bubble that also burst. The recession of '81-'82 led to fundamental shifts in spending patterns, and the structure of the retail industry. This one feels much the same, if not even more significant. From this vantage point, it’s hard to see much energy in the retail sector. Consumer’s remain in their bunker, coming out only occassionally to cherry-pick the latest half-off sale. The consumer isn’t going to lead us out of this recession, they are going to lag. The recovery will have to be led from elsewhere. Of greater concern is that this trauma appears to be leading to a fundamental restructuring of consumer’s priorities, spending patterns and shopping behavior. Retail right now is starting to feel like the hidden bubble that also burst. The recession of ‘81-’82 led to fundamental shifts in spending patterns, and the structure of the retail industry. This one feels much the same, if not even more significant.

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