Comments on: Mixed Signals from Payroll Data http://zachstocks.com/2009/09/mixed-signals-from-payroll-data/ Dynamic Investments for Exceptional Traders Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:25:18 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Zachary Scheidt http://zachstocks.com/2009/09/mixed-signals-from-payroll-data/comment-page-1/#comment-7800 Zachary Scheidt Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:37:07 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2434#comment-7800 You're right - the birth/death model was higher by 118k. This figure is highly suspect and is just another reason to be skeptical of some of the statistics we are seeing. Investors who trade based on the "headline numbers" are missing much of the detail which can be of paramount importance. As far as small businesses are concerned, there are two ways of looking at this. Small businesses are the lifeblood of a growing economy so it's important to see improvement in this area. But at the same time, many who were laid off at established firms have in fact started their own small businesses and may be living at a much lower level of income than previously seen. This leads to the "underemployed" argument which may be much more negative than the headline "unemployed" number. Thanks for the comment! You’re right – the birth/death model was higher by 118k. This figure is highly suspect and is just another reason to be skeptical of some of the statistics we are seeing. Investors who trade based on the “headline numbers” are missing much of the detail which can be of paramount importance.

As far as small businesses are concerned, there are two ways of looking at this. Small businesses are the lifeblood of a growing economy so it’s important to see improvement in this area. But at the same time, many who were laid off at established firms have in fact started their own small businesses and may be living at a much lower level of income than previously seen. This leads to the “underemployed” argument which may be much more negative than the headline “unemployed” number.

Thanks for the comment!

]]> By: Absolute Reserve http://zachstocks.com/2009/09/mixed-signals-from-payroll-data/comment-page-1/#comment-7799 Absolute Reserve Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:22:51 +0000 http://zachstocks.com/?p=2434#comment-7799 Am I reading it right that the net birth/death model was +118,000? Glad to hear small business is doing so well. Over 1,000,000 jobs "created" since January. Am I reading it right that the net birth/death model was +118,000?

Glad to hear small business is doing so well. Over 1,000,000 jobs “created” since January.

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