Comments on: Solar Selloff Close To Exhaustion?

By: Local Social Fusion

Local Social Fusion — Sat, 19 Mar 2011 04:17:29 +0000

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By: Cosmodog

Cosmodog — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:26:13 +0000

J A Solar has a bigger advantage over TSL in EUROPE as they only derive 20% of all revenues from Europe and they are completely hedged against the dropping Euro.

Also, JASO has no long term debt and limited longterm debt of around 99 million, but with their 240 million of cash reserves and 450 million in working capital, they can easily handle the debt service.

Also J A Solar is beating estimate handlily and has for the past three quarters, and raising not only operating margins but also Cell efficiency, now 19.5%..

To bad these writers continue to lump J A Solar into the groups who face the most European exposure, as they clearly have a huge advantage over all other chinese Solar companies with only 20% of their revenues coming from Europe.

By: Fred W

Fred W — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:25:48 +0000

“Long-term, the entire solar industry could benefit from the wake of BP’s (BP) giant oil spill. Environmental concerns will likely drive tighter regulations for fossil fuels, and generate more demand for alternative means such as solar energy. Short-term concerns are weighing down the market, but in the long run we could easily look back on the summer of 2010 as an excellent buying point for solar stocks.”

Your are on target with this statement…it is already happening.
Make some calls to most U.S. distributors and ask for 250kW. You might have to wait 6 months or so for the more efficient products and similar issues are occurring for utility scale inverters.

By: robdoc

robdoc — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:25:22 +0000

Cost competition will have TSL on top with increased pressure in the solar realm.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in the long term.

In the short term the market is agreeing with your article…TSL is up 3% at the time of writing this while the major indices are down average 3%…very telling divergence between the Euro and TSL as well as of today.

By: Fred W

Fred W — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:24:59 +0000

“TSL is certainly best of breed in c-si.”
What criteria are you basing this statement on?
Perhaps best in breed for Chinese manufacturers, but otherwise your statement is a huge reach.

By: jbde

jbde — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:24:35 +0000

TSL is certainly best of breed in c-si. We will have to see how they ’solve’ the Euro market problem.

FSLR’s ‘defense’ was to open a plant there.

Still, the labor and electricity costs advantage of TSL being Chinese seems to give it plenty of margin room to do business in the Euro-zone.

By: The Green Investor

The Green Investor — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:09:36 +0000

Great article. Although Trina Solar’s gross margins are expected to come out closer to 28% when they announce their 1Q 2010 results next week, your point is well taken: they are the profitability leader in this space and should a price war break out in the second half of the year, they will suffer less than most of their competitors.

While the TSL chart looks atrocious, it is important to contrast it with some of its peers to get a feel for just how well the company is doing compared to the rest of the solar sector, as can be seen in http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/465788-the-green-investor/69833-taming-the-solarcoaster

By: Tom Demian

Tom Demian — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:09:07 +0000

that is one ugly chart

By: Carl Martin

Carl Martin — Thu, 20 May 2010 14:08:44 +0000

I think the so called smart money that got into all the green investments early has been getting out as reality is sinking in. The long term charts sure don’t look very promising. In the end it will always be economics that prevail, not hope.