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GDP Report Shows Anemic Growth

GDP Report Shows Anemic Growth

Traders are reacting to this morning’s adjusted GDP report which shows slower growth than originally reported…

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 1.6% from April to June, the Commerce Department said Frid

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Greek Riots Continue to Undermine Global Markets

Greek Riots Continue to Undermine Global Markets

If you think the worst is behind us when it comes to the Eurpean debt crisis, Think Again!

Yesterday there were more riots in the streets of Athens as labor unions violently opposed a new proposal that would raise the retirement age and cut payments to pension recipients.  It’s understandable that citizens would be discouraged at losing generous benefits that had been promised for years, but one has to stop and think about how realistic these promises have been.

Whether Greece is able to fulfill the labor union’s expectation of generous payday and retirement benefits or not, the international investing community continues to expect high levels of risk.  The risk of a Greece or Spain default is a very serious issue with global repercussions.  Many European banks have significant exposure to Greek and Spanish sovereign debt, and even the expectation of a default can cause illiquidity as banks refuse to lend to each other and capital ratios are unable to be met.

As a trader in primarily US based companies, the European debt situation is still a major concern.  US markets are increasingly keying off of international events including Austerity programs, Chinese economic reports, and trends in emerging markets.  As correlations between geographical regions increase, I am finding few places where long-term investments make sense right now.  There is just too much risk of loss.

So at this point, the best course of action continues to be one of defense.  Consider holding elevated levels of cash in your account.  If you are comfortable shorting stocks and understand the risk, there are plenty of negative fundamental and technical situations that can be capitalized on.  IRA accounts can consider buying puts or inverse ETFs.

There will eventually be opportunities to buy equities with high levels of conviction.  But today’s market allows for very little confidence and requires patience and risk management regardless of your time horizon and risk tolerance.

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Consumers Face Loss of Confidence

Consumers Face Loss of Confidence

Market’s are off sharply Tuesday as investors grapple with numerous economic and political crosswinds.  This morning, traders were greeted with a weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence report.  The index dropped to 52.9 in June and the May figure was revised lower to 62.7.  According to Bloomberg, this index would need to come in above 90 to truly indicate that the economic rebound was on solid footing.

Reuters blames the weakness on two primary factors.  First, the labor market continues to be soft and consumers are concerned with the employment situation.  Those who have jobs may very well be choosing not to make discretionary purchases and instead build up a savings account in case their employment situation changes.  Obviously those who do not have jobs are even more focused on reining in spending.

The second issue is the European overhang.  While most US consumers don’t actually see significant changes in their lifestyle as a direct result of the European uncertainty, the thought of heavily indebted governments defaulting on sovereign debt is very concerning – especially considering the massive debt the US is currently building.

Additional factors include the real estate market which was artificially propped up by stimulus programs but now appears to be under pressure once again.  If consumers feel that their home value is declining, they are less likely to make large purchases – especially home repairs or remodel projects because there is less justification that these improvements are an “investment.”

Finally, the declining stock market has a very real effect on sentiment.  As consumer see the value of 401(k) holdings, IRA accounts, and traditional investment portfolios decline, it sends a very disturbing negative wealth message.

The end result will likely be contracting multiples on equities and a flight to quality.  Pursuing a conservative investment strategy appears to be the best approach for today and holding significant amounts of cash and potentially inverse ETF positions can help to offset losses in traditional investments.

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FXE Offers Liquidity for Individual Traders

FXE Offers Liquidity for Individual Traders

Note: Below is a guest post courtesy of Michael Trinkle.  Michael represents ForexTraders.com ~ ForexTraders.com is an educational/informative resource center for the currency exchange market. We help people learn, analyze and execute forex trading by providing them with the necessary tools and information needed to be successful.

Enjoy,
ZDS

Lately, almost every financial news network has market analysts talking about the currency markets. At the moment the future of the Euro Dollar is the number one debate. Some say that the European Union needs to exist for efficient trade to take place more freely throughout the E.U. Others have suggested that Greece and the other countries in trouble default on their debt and start anew, without being part of the E.U. If you are a trader looking to play the Euro currency without buying the EUR/USD pair, a good exchange traded fund that will allow you to do this is the Currency Shares Euro Trust, ticker symbol (FXE).

The FXE trades on all the major electronic exchanges. With an average three month volume of over 1.5 million shares traded daily there is more then enough liquidity for traders to trade large orders of this product intraday. The FXE will mimic the price movements of the EUR/USD pair that forex traders would trade, so if as an investor you feel that the Euro will rise buying shares of this ETF will allow you to profit from its appreciation. Likewise if the Euro Falls the ETF will lose value.

At the moment the FXE has been trading between a high of 125.66 and a low of 121.27 over the past week. As you can see by the charts the Euro has been depreciating against the U.S. Dollar since the beginning of the year. In the past month the Greek debt crisis has led to a steeper selloff, bringing more uncertainty into all financial markets.

FXE

Traders should be watching the charts in the next few weeks to see if the Euro will regain its footing or fall further. The increased volume that you can see in the histogram on the bottom of the chart indicates that more people have been trading this ETF in the past few weeks. If Greece, Spain and Portugal announce that they are still having debt issues, the Euro and the FXE will fall further.

There is no support below the 121.27 mark that we tested on May 18th, so a price break below that level on higher volume will indicate another leg down for the price of the Euro. The overall trend has been down since the beginning of the year, making it more probable that we will continue lower. There would need to be a major news story about the Germans backing the future of the European Union and Euro as a currency for it to start to appreciate. The German economy and its strong GDP is the driving force the holds the E.U. together. Germany has the biggest economy in Europe and since they are the most financially stable, they will have to help the other countries with loans to cover their budget shortfalls.

It is never easy for politicians to get their citizens to lend money to other countries that simply do not try and get their budgets under control. Greece is in the process of trying to change their socialistic style of government. As we all can see from the riots on television, this is not going to be an easy transition. If the various governments that comprise the E.U. can get their debt under control before they ask for money to bail them out the Euro has a chance to survive. If we as investors see little progress being made, they Euro will continue to fall. As a trader the best way to profit from the falling price of the Euro is to initiate a short position using the FXE exchange traded fund.

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Retail Sales Cast Doubt on Recovery

Retail Sales Cast Doubt on Recovery

Friday’s dismal retail sales report was largely overlooked as the market continued it’s oversold bounce.  But despite the strength in the broad averages, the fundamental data in the report was concerning for both business owners in the retail sector as well as investors who have bid prices of retail stocks significantly higher over the past few quarters.

The big decline cast new doubts about the strength of the economic recovery.  Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.  Economists are concerned that households will start trimming outlays as they continued to be battered by high unemployment and a swoon in stock prices. ~AP

Certain retail stocks have already begun to price in a slowdown in retail sales…  For instance, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) has already lost 30% of its market value from its high in April.  Still, other expensive apparel companies such as Lululemon Athletica (LULU) are still trading near their highs and appear to be vulnerable.

The decline in May sales reached 1.2% which was the largest decline since September and the first significant piece of negative news for retailers.  I would be more inclined to sell (or short) any rallies in the retail sector.  Investors will likely place a lower multiple on these stocks given the uncertainty ahead and the significant risk the that US consumer will continue to pinch pennies and reduce spending.

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Bernanke’s Comments on Unemployment

Bernanke’s Comments on Unemployment

For any remaining employment optimists, the comments out of Washington from Ben Bernanke are certainly troubling.  Last night the Federal Reserve Chairman sat down with Sam Donaldson (ABC) to discuss the state of the US economy.  His words were less than encouraging:

Ben BernankeThe unemployment rate is still going to be high for a while, and that means that a lot of people are going to be under financial stress

Last week, the employment report was released and was quite a disappointment to most traders.  While government hiring increased as a result of new census workers coming online, the private sector is still struggling to create new jobs.  Since each new government job must be funded by taxpayer revenues or additional borrowing, the number of new census workers isn’t exactly a benefit to the system as a whole.

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Optimists might point to the declining unemployment rate as evidence that the picture is brightening.  But the actual decline in unemployment is more a result of a smaller workforce as the statisticians reduced the denominator of “employable workers.”  This is much more of a statistical magic trick than a true improvement in the employment picture.

Last night, Bernanke also seemed to be hedging his words carefully and possibly hinting at an impending rate increase – which would likely constrain growth:

The Fed chief reiterated yesterday that the central bank’s “extended period” of a record low interbank lending rate is conditioned on high unemployment, low inflation and stable price expectations.

“We have right now a very accommodative, very easy monetary policy,” Bernanke said. “We can’t wait until unemployment is where we’d like it to be” or inflation gets “out of control” to tighten credit, he said.Bloomberg logo

(Bloomberg)

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So at this point it appears the market fear is pricing in an increasing possibility of a double dip recession – which would be very difficult to endure given the high level of government debt and the relatively high level of unemployment heading into this period.

Investors should continue to be cautious, employ strict risk control measures, and be willing to hold cash positions.  The market continues to be very turbulent and long-only investors are likely to have much better prices for buying a bit farther down the road.

 

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US Unemployment Claims Drop

US Unemployment Claims Drop

This morning’s unemployment report is being viewed as a positive data point with the number of initial claims dropping by 10,000.  However, with the total adjusted number checking in at 453,000, a 10k drop is not really a significant decline.  Analysts had been expecting the number to drop more and hit 450,000 for the month.

Unemployment has been an important issue, and one that has been difficult to tackle.  Despite many stimulus projects aimed at improving the unemployment picture, workers are still finding it challenging to find jobs.  This from a Reuters report on the data:

Although the economy has now grown for three straight quarters following the worst downturn since the 1930s and the recovery is broadening, stubbornly high unemployment is eroding President Barack Obama’s popularity…  While other indicators support views the labor market recovery is firming, claims for jobless benefits remain above levels usually associated with sustainable employment growth.

While the jobless report is helpful in determining the state of employment in the US, most eyes will be turned to the more popular Employment Report which will be released tomorrow.  The expectation is for non-farm payrolls to have increased 513,000 in May – much of which is due to the census hiring.

Employment is an important part of any economic recovery because it directly affects the well being and sustainability of the population.  While the US could experience nominal GDP growth as an eventual product of stimulus spending, without a sustained resurgence of private jobs, the recovery will quickly run into substantial challenges.

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A Season of “Worsts”

A Season of “Worsts”

According to Bespoke, Tuesday’s market action was the second worst start to June in the last 50 years.

Only the first trading day of June 2002 was worse with a decline of 2.48%.  Below we highlight all first days of June that have been down over the last 50 years.  We also provide the index’s performance through the end of the month.  For Junes that have started the month down, the S&P has averaged a rest-of-month decline of 0.53%.

Take a look at the table and you will see the closest two data points led to some very rough returns.

Considering the fact that we just completed the worst May in 50 years, it is clear that the market is vulnerable and investors  (professional and retail alike) are pairing back their risk exposure and looking for safety.

Consumers remain under pressure and if inflation and/or  unemployment statistics begin to tick higher, the pain will be felt not just on Wall Street but more importantly on Main Street.  Investors should be looking for defensive businesses that can survive and even thrive in a weak environment for consumers. Direct payday lenders like First Cash Financial (FCFS) and Cash America (CSH) may be worth watching as they have backed off in recent months but are fundamentally still relatively strong.

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Three Industries for Building Short Positions

Three Industries for Building Short Positions

The SEC’s suit against Goldman Sachs on Friday brought an entirely different tone to equities markets.  In an environment where investment assets have become overly correlated, many investors have noted a “risk on – or risk off” approach to trading.  When news is positive – or even marginal – the “risk on” mantra applies and managers use available cash to load up on high-beta names.  However, if we are now entering a “risk off” period, it will not just be the investment banks which will suffer

At risk are many of the sectors which have seen the most speculative buying since the most recent January swing low.

Newsletter AdMarkets have continued to motor higher, and recently the crossing of major points of interest (11,000 on the Dow and 1200 on the S&P 500) has had a major psychological effect on short exposure.  For the most part, short-sellers have picked up stakes and gone home – leaving the market more vulnerable to a significant drop.

When there are enough short participants in a market, that can help to add support.  This is because profit taking occurs when markets fall – and shorts covering profitable positions can sometimes be the majority of buying interest in certain stocks or sectors.  With very little short interest, a significant drop in speculative sectors could go un-checked and lead to more volatility.


So due to high levels of speculation and risk – and with the next inclination likely to be a flight to safety, here are the three areas I think traders should be most interested in shorting.

Consumer Discretionary / Retail

The retail industry has logged some impressive gains since the pullback in January / February.  After hitting a low on February 5, the retail HOLDRS (RTH) made a new recovery high in just 20 days, and has continued to march steadily higher.

Retail Holders (RTH)

Individual retailers have been reporting a pickup in sales levels and with inventories largely low and overhead costs also reduced, the profitability increase has been tremendous in some cases.  For the most part, the profitability increases has been boosted by one time issues (it’s unlikely that companies will continue to cut overhead and inventories are already picking up in anticipation of stronger demand).

The same could be said about the consumer demand for goods.  Especially if you buy into the concept of strategic defaults boosting consumer spending.  Since I have written the article on strategic defaults, I have received what I would consider a bi-polar response with many outraged readers suggesting the concept is ludicrous, while the other half actually know at least one (if not more) friends or neighbors engaged in a strategic default situation.

The ability to spend more through living rent-free in one’s house (by simply not paying the mortgage) cannot continue indefinitely and when this practice is stopped, it is likely consumer spending will once again decline – especially since employment numbers have yet to show much in the way of recovery.  When consumer spending is called into question – or simply when managers start applying the “risk off” portfolio management, retail stocks could take the brunt of the selling.

Shorting the RTH vehicle is one broad way of capitalizing on this movement, but it may be more profitable to focus on some individual stocks which have experienced significant gains and could be due for a pullback.  Stocks that quickly come to mind (for more research later) include Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), Ann Taylor (ANN) and potentially Lululemon Athletica (LULU).

Domestic China Companies

Strong economic growth in China has attracted significant foreign investment and led to strong price appreciation.  While speculative buying has supported strong price multiples, another issue has been reduced supply of available investment vehicles.  Since the Chinese government restricts the amount of financial assets available to foreigners, mutual fund managers and other institutional investors have found it difficult to secure their desired level of exposure to China.  By nature, a low supply of an asset coupled with strong demand will result in higher prices.

With current prices already reflecting strong long-term growth for the Chinese economy, it would only take some small disappointments for this sector to begin to fall.  The strong GDP reports are likely to cause the government to be more aggressive, tightening regulations on the banking sector which would reduce available capital to industry.  As these measures are enforced, the Chinese economy could continue to grow at a slower pace, but the stock prices could decline sharply to reflect the lower growth rate.

Two easy vehicles for investors to trade are the iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) and the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI).  The EWH includes a broader section of the Chinese economy, while the FXI has a larger financial concentration.

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI)

For a bit more volatility (and potentially larger gains) traders  could consider short positions in individual China companies:

  • E-House China (EJ) – A real estate agency whose profitability is closely tied to property transactions in China’s overheated real estate market.
  • Baidu Inc. (BIDU) – The well-known Google competitor running online advertising and internet search capabilities.  The stock has a strong trend but investors are paying 63 times this year’s expected earnings.
  • Home Inns & Hotel Management (HMIN) – A Chinese hotel manager with a high multiple and declining revenue growth.  The hotel industry is closely tied to a vibrant economy and any hiccup could send the stock sharply lower.

US Regional Banks

During the last financial crisis, many of the largest banking institutions were deemed “too big to fail” and were subsequently bailed out or backstopped by the US government.  While it is certainly not fair, the majority of US regional banks are decidedly NOT too big to fail and face significant risks in today’s environment.

A rising stock market and improving confidence has led many investors to overlook balance sheets with excessive leverage, and the impending danger of write-downs.  Commercial mortgages still comprise a major risk to regional banks and many of these loan portfolios are still being carried at valuations which imply economic health and little risk of default.

If the Goldman news causes a new “risk off” dynamic with lower amounts of liquidity and a focus on what could go wrong instead of only what could go right, the multiple on many of these smaller and more vulnerable banks could decline sharply.

There are two primary ETFs which were designed to track the regional banks – the iShares DJ US Regional Banks (IAT) is comprised of some of the largest regional banks like US Bancorp (USB) and BB&T Corporation (BBT).  While these banks may be vulnerable, they may also still fit into the “too big to fail” bucket and be propped up by the government in some shape or fashion.

For this reason, I’m more interested in the SPDR KBW Regional Bank (KRE).  The ETF is made up of many smaller banks and even its largest holdings only represent a small portion of the total fund.  Shorting this vehicle will give traders more exposure to the general factors that affect the small traditional US bank, and looking through the top 25 holdings for this ETF (which can be found on Morningstar.com) could yield some individual picks that are even more powerful.

SPDR KBW Regional Bank (KRE)

Timing is Everything

Timing will be key when laying out shorts in the post Goldman lawsuit period.  My expectation is for bulls to step in early this week and prop up markets.  After such a stunning run for the last 6 weeks (and for the last 12 months for that matter), it is hard to imagine the market rolling over and heading directly south without at least a week or two of wrestling.

Other Articles of Interest
Why The Market Won’t Trade Straight Down From Here
Rampant Speculation in Restaurant Industry
Calculated Risk: Weekly Summary & Look Ahead
Prag Cap: China Learning Keynesianism the Hard Way

Using reflex rallies to lay out shorts may help to cut risk.  At the same time, small positions could be initiated right away so that if the bearish sentiment takes hold immediately, at least we have some exposure taking advantage of the new trend.

For long positions in these three sectors, I would urge caution.  True investors may want to hold these positions long-term for better tax treatments and for fundamental reasons.  If this is the case, it may make sense to sell calls against individual stocks to create some income and reduce the risk, or potentially buy inverse ETFs which can generate gains while the market falls.  This could help offset traditional exposure and lead to better long-term profitability for your portfolio.

The ZachStocks Newsletter will likely begin adding short positions later this week or early next week.  At this point we are waiting to get a better feel for the market reaction, but should be able to use a reflex rally to step into some profitable shorts at appropriate risk / reward ratios.  The important thing for traders to do at this point is to continue building a watch list of appropriate short candidates so that when the decline begins in earnest, we will have a robust list of short candidates.

FD: Author does not have a position in any stocks mentioned in this article.

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Why The Market Won’t Trade Straight Down From Here

Why The Market Won’t Trade Straight Down From Here

Goldman Sachs (GS)Financial markets are facing extreme selling today after Goldman Sachs (GS) was charged with fraud by the SEC for marketing debt products which were essentially designed to fail.  According to the accusation, John Paulson assisted Goldman in creating Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) which allowed investors to capture positive cash flow by essentially “insuring” mortgage securities.  Paulson who took the other side of the trade ended up getting paid huge sums when the mortgage market eventually fell apart.

The SEC charge brings up an interesting philosophical debate.  How much liability should Goldman (or for that matter Paulson) have for creating investment products that buyers were clamoring to own – even if it was clear that the end result would be major losses for clients of Goldman.

Keep in mind the years leading up to 2007.  Real estate prices continued to climb and optimism reigned supreme.  Middle class, lower class, and even upper class consumers were all but assured that the way to build permanent, sustainable wealth was to own real estate – a LOT of real estate.  Since land has a fixed supply (how many times did we hear the wisecrack “they’re not making any MORE of it”?) investors expected the price of homes, land, condos and office properties to continue to rise ad-infinitum.

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Leverage was strongly encouraged because when prices do nothing but rise, leverage works in the buyers favor.  So Wall Street was all-too-happy to create opportunities for non-creditworthy buyers to get in the home of their dreams.  It all made financial sense because if the buyer eventually defaulted, the value of the property would have risen to more than make up for the loss on the loan.  And typically, owners would simply refinance, borrowing more on the value of the property – and use the money for paying the loan or other discretionary purchases

Owning a home could actually become a self-funding venture.

Caveat Emtor?

So during this manic time period, investor appetite for mortgages naturally increased.  Think about it…  When buying mortgage securities, you were essentially loaning money to purchase properties that continued to appreciate in value.  The collateral was becoming more valuable, meaning that every day your loan became more secure.

In this environment, it’s hard to understand why Goldman wouldn’t offer mortgage products to investors who were begging for more supply.  If you’ve read John Paulson’s book The Greatest Trade Ever (a great read I might add) you would see just how strong the demand was for these securities and how the momentum fed on itself.

I guess my main question is – was Goldman really wrong to sell ill-fated mortgage securities to willing and experienced professionals? I know there is more to the story than this, but the bottom line is that these CDOs weren’t being sold to individual investors who knew nothing about the market.  They were being sold to pension funds, endowments, hedge funds – to institutions managed by professionals who should have researched what they were buying.

Part of the SEC’s accusation centers around the fact that Paulson & Co. helped to pick out the individual mortgages or baskets that went into the CDO securities.  This is certainly something that should have been disclosed to buyers – if the seller has access to non-public information that the buyer cannot uncover, then the playing field is tilted.

But what worries me is the moral hazard that is emerging in the financial markets.  More and more, it seems that we expect gains to be privatized (meaning if companies MAKE money, they get to keep it), but losses are socialized (the government steps in to make losers whole).

What ever happened to a fair market where willing buyers and willing sellers met to exchange goods (be they industrial, agricultural or financial goods)?  If I make a trade and lose money, the responsibility is mine.  My job is to cut my losses, learn a lesson from the mistake, and move on to bigger and better trades.  The same should be true of all market participants, and if you or I buy products that we don’t understand, then we shouldn’t be involved in that market in the first place!

But I digress…

Where To From Here

My suspicion is that the market won’t completely fall apart at this juncture in the game.  The bulls have been entirely too strong and we have been conditioned to “buy the dips” (even though there have been precious few dips to buy recently).  Investors with any capital on the sidelines have largely been kicking themselves for not participating and promising to put their capital to work the next time we get a correction.

So this buying pressure brought on by classical conditioning will likely stabilize the market in the short-term.  So I wouldn’t bet the farm on a major short position Monday morning at the open.

ZachStocks AdvertisementHowever… I DO think that over the next two months we will have a significant negative move in the market and give up a good portion of recent gains in speculative positions.  Even though a lawsuit against Goldman has very little to do with most industrial, technical, medical or retail stocks, the political risk introduced into the market could have the effect of decreasing the multiple investors are willing to pay on stocks across the board.

Currently, the majority of short positions have been closed as traders have been punished for any bearish bets.  Short sellers usually help to stabilize falling markets because they represent pent up buying pressure as they buy to cover their positions and collect their profits.  With these participants largely out of the market, the decline could turn out to be much more severe.

Other Articles of Interest
Rampant Speculation in Restaurant Industry
Citigroup Taps a Liquid Market
Market Folly: Goldman Releases its Real Defense
WSJ: Goldman Charged with Subprime Fraud

Prices are currently at levels that imply a full, robust recovery, so any change in this expectation will cause “long and leveraged” managers to re-think their positions.  So after an initial buying period, don’t be surprised to see the market head south in a hurry.

I’ll be using the next week to brush up on my short watch list and look for names that have the most risk, the highest multiples, and investors with the strongest confidence.  While many of these names will be tough to short (due to the strong price momentum), watching the charts carefully for good entry points, and managing risk with stop orders could turn out to be a very profitable endeavor.  I have felt like the first quarter didn’t offer too many opportunities for large profits, but the climate today makes me excited about the new opportunity for traders willing to play both the long and the short side of the market.

Goldman Sachs (GS)

FD: Author does not have a position in GS

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